Edición Instituto Cervantes at FAS - Harvard University
Estudios del Observatorio/Observatorio Studies. 095-03/2025EN (Trans.)
Abstract: This study analyzes the Hispanic vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential elections by comparing census data, surveys, and exit polls. It examines the size, distribution, and participation of Hispanic voters, as well as their electoral behavior based on factors such as home language, ancestry (with notable differences among Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans), gender, age (with higher Republican support among young men), education, economic status, and religion. The family economy emerged as a central concern across all groups. Additionally, the study evaluates party preferences in ten key states—including California, Texas, Florida, and the swing states—highlighting the relative increase in support for Donald Trump among Hispanic voters. It also identifies significant discrepancies between major polls, particularly those conducted for the National Election Pool (NEP) and the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll (2024-AEVP), attributing them to methodological deficiencies and biases. These inconsistencies underscore the challenges of accurately measuring the minority vote and the need to reassess the prevailing media narrative regarding the so-called “Hispanic shift” toward the Republican Party. Furthermore, estimates based on widely referenced data suggest that the Hispanic vote was not decisive in Donald Trump’s victory, which contrasts with the dominant media discourse.
Keywords: Hispanic vote, U.S. presidential elections, electoral polls, voting behavior, political demographics, media influence